System Identification & Data Analysis
- Corso del 1° Anno di Magistrale (2° Semestre).
- Docente: Andrea Garulli & Marco Casini.
- Link to Drive with Video Lectures
- Notes of an old course version
Cheat Sheet
Mind Maps:
- SI&DA - Recap of Previous Courses - Mind Map
- SI&DA - System Identification - Mind Map
- SI&DA - State Estimation - Mind Map
Perquisites:
- Introduction to linear algebra: Professor Link | my Notes
- Probability and statistics: Professor Link | my Notes
- Dynamic systems: Professor’s Link | my Notes
- Tutorial for dynamic system analysis and simulation with MATLAB
Contents and Program:
Estimation Theory
- Course Introduction
- Random variables. Probability distributions. Mean and covariance. Conditional probability. Gaussian variables.
- Estimation theory. Parametric estimation. Properties of estimators. Maximum likelihood estimators. Least squares and Gauss-Markov estimators. Bayesian estimation. Minimum mean square error estimators.
- Stochastic processes and time-series prediction. Distributions, mean and covariance function. Stationary processes. Frequency domain representation. Stochastic dynamic systems. Time-series models: AR, MA, ARMA. Time-series prediction.
System Identification
- System identification theory. Identification of linear systems: prediction error methods. Input-output models: ARX, ARMAX, OE, BJ. Least squares estimator for linear regression models. Model validation.
- Practical system identification. Use of software tools for system identification.
State Estimation
- State estimation for linear systems. Non stationary stochastic systems. The state estimation problem and the Kalman filter. Asymptotic properties of the Kalman filter. Recursive system identification.
- State estimation for nonlinear systems. State estimation in nonlinear stochastic systems. The Extended Kalman Filter. Advanced nonlinear filtering techniques: unscented filter; sequential Monte Carlo methods.
Lectures
Probability & Statistics
SI&DA - Lecture 1 ‘Recap of Random Variables (RVs) - Part I’ ✓ SI&DA - Lecture 2 ‘Recap of Random Variables (RVs) - Part II’ ✓ SI&DA - Lecture 3 ‘Recap of Conditional Distributions’ ✓ SI&DA - Lecture 4 ‘Estimation Theory - Part I’ ✓ SI&DA - Lecture 5 ‘Estimation Theory - Part II’ SI&DA - Lecture 6 ‘Maximum Likelihood Method’ SI&DA - Lecture 7 ‘Linear Estimation Problems’ SI&DA - Lecture 8 ‘Bayesian Estimation’ SI&DA - Lecture 9 ‘Stochastic Processes’ SI&DA - Lecture 10 ‘Example of Stochastic Processes’ SI&DA - Lecture 11 ‘Linear Stochastic System’ SI&DA - Lecture 12 ‘Frequency Domain Analysis of Stochastic Systems’ SI&DA - Lecture 13 ‘MA AR and ARMA Processes’ SI&DA - Lecture 14 ‘Time Series Prediction’
System Identification
SI&DA - Lecture 15 ‘System Identification’ SI&DA - Lecture 16 ‘LTI Models’ SI&DA - Lecture 17 ‘Model Selection Criteria’ SI&DA - Lecture 18 ‘Optimal Model Choice’ SI&DA - Lecture 19 ‘Model Validation - Part I’ SI&DA - Lecture 20 ‘Model Validation - Part II’
State Evaluation
SI&DA - Lecture 21 ‘State Estimation Problem’ SI&DA - Lecture 22 ‘Derivation of the Kalman Filter - Part I’ SI&DA - Lecture 23 ‘Derivation of the Kalman Filter - Part II’ SI&DA - Lecture 24 ‘Properties of the Kalman Filter’ SI&DA - Lecture 25 ‘Asymptotic Behaviour of the Kalman Filter’ SI&DA - Lecture 26 ‘Applications for the Kalman Filter’ SI&DA - Lecture 27 ‘Recursive Parameter Estimation’ SI&DA - Lecture 28 ‘The Extended Kalman Filter’ SI&DA - Lecture 29 ‘The Continuous-Discrete Kalman Filter’ SI&DA - Lecture 30 ‘The Unscented Kalman Filter - from Online Resources’ SI&DA - Lecture 30 ‘The Unscented Kalman Filter’ SI&DA - Lecture 31 ‘The Particle Filter’
Index
Course Introduction
Random variables
- SI&DA - Definition of ‘CDF (Cumulative Distribution Function)’
- SI&DA - Definition of ‘PDF (Probability Density Function)’
- SI&DA - Properties of the CDF and PDF
- SI&DA - Multivariate Distributions
- SI&DA - Definition of ‘Joint CDF’
- SI&DA - Definition of ‘Joint PDF’
- SI&DA - Properties of Multivariate PDF
- SI&DA - CDF of a Generic Surface
- SI&DA - Definition of ‘Marginal PDF’
- SI&DA - Mean & Variance
- SI&DA - Definition of ‘Confidence Interval’
- SI&DA - Mean of a Vector of RVs
- SI&DA - Definition of ‘Covariance Matrix’
- SI&DA - Definition of ‘Independent Random Variables’
- SI&DA - Definition of ‘Uncorrelated Random Variables’
- SI&DA - Theorem ‘Independent RVs are also Uncorrelated’
- SI&DA - Theorem ‘Independent or Uncorrelated Gaussian RVs’
- SI&DA - Theorem ‘Independent or Uncorrelated Gaussian RVs’
- SI&DA - Theorem ‘Affine RV’
- SI&DA - Definition of ‘Cross-Covariance’
- SI&DA - Property of Multivariate Gaussian RVs
- SI&DA - Central Limit Theorem
- SI&DA - Functions of RVs
- SI&DA - Multivariate Functions of RVs
- SI&DA - Definition of ‘Conditional Distribution’
- SI&DA - Definition of ‘Conditional Mean’
- SI&DA - Definition of ‘Conditional Variance and Covariance’
- SI&DA - Conditional PDF for Gaussian RVs
Estimation Theory
- SI&DA - Estimation Problem
- SI&DA - Definition of ‘Consistent Estimator’
- SI&DA - Parametric Estimation
- SI&DA - Definition of ‘Estimator’
- SI&DA - Definition of ‘Unbiased Estimator’
- SI&DA - Theorem ‘Sequence of Unbiased Estimators’
- SI&DA - Theorem ‘Law of Large Numbers’
Exercises and Examples:
CollectionOfSIandDAExample Random variables ~ Ex.: “Uniform PDF” Random variables ~ Ex.: “Gaussian PDF or Normal” Random variables ~ Ex.: “CDF and PDF of a Coin Toss” Random variables ~ Homework 1 Random variables ~ Homework 2
Estimation Theory ~ Ex.: “Estimation Problem with Noise” Estimation Theory ~ Ex.: “Sample Mean” Estimation Theory ~ Ex.: “Another Unbiased Estimator” Estimation Theory ~ Ex.: “Sample Variance” Estimation Theory ~ Homework 3 Estimation Theory ~ Ex.: “Consistency of the Sample Mean”
All My Notes
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